American politics

Back to American politics; the kind where the losers in an election don’t start shooting people in the streets. At least not yet.

The south Carolina Primaries are both over and done as we all know and Obama beat Clinton while McCain beat Romney, Huckabee, and the others.

Let’s start with the Democrats.
This is down to a two person race with Edwards tagging along trying to mix things up. The pressure on him from the Democratic establishment to drop out has to ratcheting up exponentially with each passing primary. I am not at all sure what he is pushing for unless it is a hope that there will be a contested convention and he gets the nod as the compromise candidate. This is unlikely but it would certainly be exciting. IT is too bad the Green party latched on to that joke named Cynthia McKinney so soon. Edwards would have been a much better candidate for them. He would have actually drawn voters. Actually, thinking about it, he is hoping to win a VP spot by throwing his support behind one or the other of the two leading candidates at the right time. A risky move but a bold one.

Clinton. This is getting interesting. She has got to be really unhappy with the way things are going but it is way too soon to count her out. I expect she will pick up enough wins/delegates on Super Tuesday to stay right in the thick of the race. There is a lot of muttering from folks all over the place about what Bill is doing and saying. This interests me. Is he doing and saying this stuff as part of a plan they have created together or is he just off the reservation and running wild? I suspect the first but it seems like a strange plan and one that obviously didn’t work in SC. I am curious as too what his role would be in the new Clinton White House. I can’t see him sitting around being second fiddle to Hillary so I am not sure what she will do with him. Secty of State maybe? Or have him shot and buried in the Rose Garden. IT will be interesting to see.
I am also quite amused/fascinated that Clinton is being touted as the candidate with “Experience”. She is a one and half term Senator and a former Presidents wife. Other than that she hasn’t done all that much. Certainly nothing on an executive Level. That is not a resume to inspire confidence.

Obama. I’ll be honest is saying Obama worries me. He is a great orator but he tends to not fill out the details when he is orating. He catches people up in his Grand Vision (Illusion??) but other than saying he will bring people together I haven’t heard any details of that vision. He is certainly in a good spot politically right now. He has gained enough support in the Primaries that members of the democratic establishment feel comfortable in coming out to support him. The press is busily trying to paint a tidal wave of support around him. As I said in the Clinton paragraph, I really don’t think this thing is anywhere near over yet.
I guess what really scares me about Obama is that he seems to be an idealist. Idealists tend to get caught up in their grand vision and not notice reality. This is not a good thing in a political leader. It tends to created chaos and death. His plan to immediately pull all the troops out of Iraq will create huge amounts of both. But I guess he can just blame that on Bush.

Of the Dems, as much as I hate to say it I’d have to say Clinton is the best bet. I don’t like her. I don’t trust her. But she is a political realist who will be absolutely desperate to have a successful Presidency to seal her legacy. (and I think that will be more important that most other things to her) As such she will be the most likely to actually compromise and do political things to get stuff done. I just don’t trust idealists.

On the Republican side it is still a Battle Royale right now. The press is heralding the return of McCain and with his SC win he looks pretty favorable right now. But it is a long way from over here too.

Let’s start with Huckabee. Huckabee came on strong in Iowa and has been fading fast ever since. Frankly if he couldn’t win in SC with the vast numbers of people who vote their religion there I don’t see him pulling it out and winning anywhere else. As previously posted, his fading doesn’t really upset me much though. We’ll see how he does in Florida. I don’t see him winning there but if he were to get second, or even third it would keep him up. But of course, right now he is polling about fourth...

Romney. Romney is the Republican that can’t get no respect. He draws well in a lot of the primaries. In fact he has one of the highest actual number of delegates so far. But when he wins there is sort of a universal shrug and when he doesn’t win everyone predicts his collapse. NPR had a commentator talking the other day about how the other campaigns actually HATE him. I don’t know if it is true or not but if it is it is sad. He does have good experience. He was Governor of Massachusetts, and he has successfully run a major corporation. He has a good track record. None of the talking radio heads approve of him (which maybe a plus). I just don’t see him winning. I could see him as a potential VP though (although not for McCain or Huckabee and as for Rudy, well more on him in a bit) He could still pull it out but I doubt it. Currently polling first in Florida, but withing the margin of error.

Rudy G. America’s Mayor (what a foolish title) has run an interesting race. I rather suspect that he is regretting not putting in at least some time, effort, and money in states other than Florida. It can’t be good to keep losing to Ron Paul. He is currently polling third if I recall correctly in Florida which does not bode well for his efforts. I haven never really liked him as a candidate. He has always seems a bit to shrill and too eager to drape 9-11 around his neck. Yeah, he stepped up and kept an orderly front during a huge crisis which is a good thing. And he cleaned up Times Square which many swore could never be done. But I just am not that impressed. Romney and he would make an interesting ticket though. But I don’t see it happening.

John McCain. Once pronounced dead by all political pundits he is back and is on top at the moment. I personally though he would never get it because of his unrepentant support for the war in Iraq and if he gets the nomination that will be what the Democrats will howl about the most. Of course getting the nomination is still very much up in the air here. The BIG TALKING HEAD of the Republican right, Rush Limbaugh, despises McCain. The smaller talking heads don’t like him much either. They all like to say he has a temper and is soft on immigration. That he works with Democrats and won’t hold fast to “Conservative Ideals” Meh. It is his race to lose right now but if the heads have their way he will lose it. And if he wins, will they turn against the Republican candidate? As a further note, I expect that if he gets the nomination Joe Lieberman will be his running mate. (you saw if here first)

Ron Paul. I man I have to admire for his sheer tenacity. That and. except for his Libertarian lunacy of a foreign policy, I like a lot of what he says too. I rather suspect we will see him running in November on the Libertarian ticket.

Oh yeah, the Lost Candidate Fred Thompson. He certainly was the darling of a lot of the conservative pundits but apparently no one else. He made a huge and fundamental mistake. Someone convinced him that if he came in everyone would flock to his banner and he could waltz to victory. (sort of what Bush thought would happen in Iraq) Unfortunately he believed this myth too and it tanked for him. He didn’t even seem to start campaigning until SC and that was a bit too late for him. I kept hearing people say he was the true conservative but nobody seemed impressed by that at the polls.

So who do I favor? McCain. I liked him better than Bush back in their first run and was angry that he pulled out after SC then. I think McCain is a pragmatist with a proven ability to actually get things done in DC. Unfortunately, if he wins it will almost like having a third party President. There will be a large number of Republicans who will hate him, a large number of democrats who will hate his and an endangered set of moderates from both parties in the middle working with him. Unless of course voters get smart enough to vote out the hardliners in the congress soon. In the last election they went the other way and voted out moderates across the boards. But Congress is vastly unpopular right now so maybe there is a chance.