Stalemate?
A few weeks ago I had a blog post half written about how the urge for consensus in foreign policy had doomed the Libyan rebellion. Then, much to my surprise the UN pulled a resolution out of nowhere and authorized a "No Fly Zone" which was interpreted to mean a "Blow up Libyan military assets wherever we may find them". Low and behold, Benghazi was saved and it looked like I was wrong.
Well, not so fast.As it turns out the effort is being somewhat less than gloriously successful. The Libyan Air force is indeed grounded, or destroyed, but the rebels.... well it seems they need a bit more.It was clearly hoped by the European leaders and by our President that the Libyan Army would turn against Qaddafi once the bombing started. It was a nice but but it failed to play out. Now we have a situation where the rebels are too weak to actually win, and the Libyan military can't mass enough forces without getting bombed to actually beat them. Now, given time, the rebels will become more capable, but that time will be years, not months. France is annoyed that NATO isn't doing more to help the rebels, the rebels blame NATO for their lack of success, (how soon gratitude turns to blame)the populaces of Europe are watching with an increasing lack of enthusiasm the growth of their own little Iraq. (yeah, hyperbole, I know but why shouldn't I jump on that band wagon too?)
And when oh when are people going to "protect the civilians" in Syria? Never I'd wager.
Interesting times indeed.
Well, not so fast.As it turns out the effort is being somewhat less than gloriously successful. The Libyan Air force is indeed grounded, or destroyed, but the rebels.... well it seems they need a bit more.It was clearly hoped by the European leaders and by our President that the Libyan Army would turn against Qaddafi once the bombing started. It was a nice but but it failed to play out. Now we have a situation where the rebels are too weak to actually win, and the Libyan military can't mass enough forces without getting bombed to actually beat them. Now, given time, the rebels will become more capable, but that time will be years, not months. France is annoyed that NATO isn't doing more to help the rebels, the rebels blame NATO for their lack of success, (how soon gratitude turns to blame)the populaces of Europe are watching with an increasing lack of enthusiasm the growth of their own little Iraq. (yeah, hyperbole, I know but why shouldn't I jump on that band wagon too?)
And when oh when are people going to "protect the civilians" in Syria? Never I'd wager.
Interesting times indeed.
posted by exMI | 15:10
2 Comments:
Since the purported Libyan mission involved offering succour to civilians it was worthy noting that the only 'cover' available is in the cities : which are therefore bombed. Doug's Darkworld at unitedcats.wordpress.com put up a little analysis on that not too long ago.
I was more interested in the great underground water project - Turkey has one too - and in Israel's thirst.
Not to mention securing strategic control of the Med and the Africom connection.
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